Forecasting Prices, Supply & Demand in the Carbon Market

The Carbon Market Opportunity

1.3 Billion

2025

+12,285%

161 Billion

2050

Unlock insights into carbon credit potential across sectors and geographies.

The Voluntary Carbon Market is currently valued at $1.3 billion but AlliedOffsets projects this to exceed $161 billion by 2050, driven by rising demand, stricter quality standards, and growing net zero commitments. Despite today’s market being fragmented, oversupplied with low-integrity credits, and constrained by low prices, a shift toward high-integrity carbon markets is underway. Our customized, data-led approach empowers companies to make informed, future-proof investment decisions during this transition.

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Data-Backed Forecasts for Carbon Credit Prices, Supply & Demand

Built on Real Data. Designed for Real Decisions.

How can the forecast model be used?

There are hundreds of use cases for our forecast model, amongst others, users can utilize the model for project financing, buyer analysis, policy developments and insights, and also general trend analysis.

Unlock Project Insights & Boost Returns

Build accurate revenue projections
Strengthen investor pitches
Identify high-profit projects by country and sector
Negotiate fairer offtake credit prices

Drive Policy Impact with Carbon Market Insights

Pinpoint high-potential countries and engage key policymakers
Evaluate job creation and economic benefits from carbon projects and support policy design and revenue strategies
Analyze how carbon activities can contribute to achieving NDC goals

Forecast Buyer Analysis

Understand the likely future drivers of demand, at a country and project sector level
Utilize corporate emissions and decarbonization targets in order to identify interested buyers of credits and evaluate their likely need for credits in the future

Explore Carbon Market Trends

Obtain actionable data on the sectors and countries that are most likely to grow in the coming years
Find untapped potential for carbon market activity across sectors and geographies
Adjust your portfolio to meet future demand

Forecast Report Outputs

2025 Forecast for Voluntary Carbon Markets

Our new forecast report leverages years of data and analysis to present critical future trends for the voluntary carbon market. In this report we cover scenario modeling, regional and sectorial insights, model applications (including forecasting employment in the VCM) and an overview of the model assumptions.

Here are some of the key findings from our Base Case Scenario:

The base case below projects a growth scenario that sees companies offsetting a portion of their missed targets. Here we expect the market to grow slowly until 2032, as oversupply of credits means that there is enough supply to satisfy demand until that year.
The primary market value stays in the single digits until 2033, at which point it quickly increases, reaching ~$40b by 2040 (in nominal terms).
The number of credit retirements reaches 1b in 2039.
In the next 5 years, we forecast energy efficiency and waste disposal projects to become more popular.

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