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The Future Buyers in the Voluntary Carbon Market

AlliedOffsets latest report analyses future demand in the voluntary carbon market (VCM), identifying the companies, sectors and regions most likely to drive an estimated $2.27 billion in carbon credit purchases. Using advanced Likelihood to Buy modeling, we find that abatement potential, headquarter location, internal carbon pricing, and the presence of a net-zero target are among the most influential predictors of market participation. 

Sectors with medium-to-high likelihood to buy include airlines, consumer goods, financial services, technology and telecommunications, and industrials and manufacturing. Among returning buyers, energy and technology drive the largest projected financial impact, while aviation is the biggest growth driver among new entrants due to compliance requirements under the CORSIA framework. The report also highlights high-probability buyers across multiple sectors and provides data-driven insights for credit suppliers, brokers and market participants seeking to understand where the next wave of VCM demand will emerge.